What happened to global warming?
From the BBC website:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8299079.stm
“Last month, Mojib Latif, a member of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) says that we may indeed be in a period of cooling worldwide temperatures that could last another 10-20 years.Professor Latif is based at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University in Germany and is one of the world’s top climate modellers.
But he makes it clear that he has not become a sceptic; he believes that this cooling will be temporary, before the overwhelming force of man-made global warming reasserts itself.”
In fact, the most recent temperature records, rather than matching IPCC predictions, are right on track for a simple combination of two natural trends.
- 1.) A gradual warming trend as we return to the temperatures of the medieval warm period (hotter than now) from the temperatures of the little ice age. (For a look at how the IPCC scientists have massaged the data to try to get the inconvenient medieval warm period to disappear, read this -> http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/McKitrick-hockeystick.pdf )
- 2.) The multi-decade cycle described in the top article that represents the interaction of sun output cycles with ocean current cycles – and conforms exactly with the multidecade shift between sensationalist claims that we are going to burn up and sensationalist claims that we are going to freeze, should temperatures continue in one direction linearly or worse (like the 2001 IPCC predictions all showed).
Note that according to this simple hypothesis (which so far fits observable data better than 2001 IPCC predictions) we are unlikely to be as hot as 1998 again until the mid 2040s.